Where Countries Rely Beef on Beef Agriculture

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3.3 Livestock bolt

three.3.one Past and present

Livestock, a major gene in the growth of world agriculture. The world food economy is existence increasingly driven by the shift of diets and nutrient consumption patterns towards livestock products. Some use the term«food revolution» to refer to these trends (Delgado et al., 1999). In the developing countries, where almost all world population increases take identify, consumption of meat has been growing at 5-half dozen per centum p.a. and that of milk and dairy products at 3.4-3.viii percent p.a. in the last few decades. Aggregate agronomical output is being affected past these trends, not but through the growth of livestock product proper, but likewise through the linkages of livestock production to the crop sector which supplies the feeding stuffs (mainly cereals and oilseeds), and benefits from the important crop-livestock synergies prevailing in mixed farming systems (de Haan et al., 1998).

On the negative side, and in association with policy distortions or marketplace failures, there are environmental implications associated with the expansion of livestock production. For example, through the expansion of country for livestock development, livestock sector growth has been a prime number force in deforestation in some countries such as Brazil, and in overgrazing in other countries. Intensive livestock operations on an industrial scale, by and large in the industrial countries but increasingly in the developing ones, are a major source of ecology bug through the production of betoken-source pollution (effluents, etc.).²⁰ In parallel, growth in the ruminant sector contributes to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through methyl hydride emissions and nitrous oxide from the waste product of grazing animals (see Capacity 12 and 13).

Important exceptions and qualifications. The strength of the livestock sector as the major driving force of global agronomics can be easily exaggerated. Many developing countries and regions, where the need to increase protein consumption is the greatest, are not participating in the process. In forty developing countries, amidst those covered individually in this study, per capita consumption of meat was lower in the mid-1990s than 10 years earlier. In this category are the regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with very low consumption per capita reflecting quasi-perennial economic stagnation. Also the Almost E/North Africa, where the rapid progress of the period to the late 1980s (oil boom) was interrupted and slightly reversed in the subsequent years, helped by the collapse of consumption in Iraq. Like considerations apply to developments in per capita consumption of milk and dairy products (Tabular array 3.ix). In the dandy majority of countries failing to participate in the upsurge of the livestock products consumption, the reason has simply been lack of evolution and income growth (including failures to develop agriculture and production of these products) that would translate their considerable latent need for what are still luxury items into constructive demand. Cultural and religious factors have also stood in the way of wider diffusion of consumption of meat in full general in some countries (such equally India) or of item meats (such as beef in India and pork in Muslim countries).

Table 3.9: Milk and dairy products, production and use: past and projected
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1994/96	1997/99	2015	2030
	Food per capita (kg, whole milk equivalent)
World	74	75	78	77	78	83	90
Developing	28	xxx	37	42	45	55	66
Sub-Saharan Africa	28	28	32	29	29	31	34
Virtually East/North Africa	69	72	83	71	72	81	90
Latin America and the Caribbean	80	93	94	106	110	125	140
South asia	37	38	51	62	68	88	107
East Asia	4	iv	6	10	ten	14	xviii
Industrial countries	186	191	212	212	212	217	221
Transition economies	157	192	181	155	159	169	179
Memo item
Earth excl. transition economies	65	64	69	71	72	78	85
	'000 tonnes	Growth rates, % p.a.
	1997/99	1969-99	1979-99	1989-99	1992-99	1997/99-2015	2015-30
	Amass consumption (all uses, whole milk equivalent)
Earth	559399	1.3	0.9	0.5	1.1	1.iv	i.iii
Developing	239068	3.6	three.4	3.8	4.0	2.seven	2.2
Sub-Saharan Africa	18134	2.7	1.7	ii.1	two.8	2.ix	two.7
Near East/North Africa	32979	2.6	1.half-dozen	ii.0	2.6	two.4	2.2
Latin America and the Caribbean	61954	ii.vii	ii.6	3.5	three.5	2.0	i.7
South Asia	104552	4.v	4.8	four.8	five.0	3.i	two.iv
East Asia	21450	5.8	5.6	4.9	4.ane	2.7	two.2
Industrial countries	225797	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.3
Transition economies	94534	-0.4	-one.7	-4.8	-three.6	0.1	0.i
Memo item
Earth excl. transition economies	464865	1.9	1.7	two.0	ii.2	1.7	one.v
	Production (whole milk equivalent)
World	561729	i.iii	0.9	0.6	1.2	1.iv	1.3
Developing	219317	3.half-dozen	3.8	four.i	4.3	2.7	2.three
Sub-Saharan Africa	15752	two.7	two.3	one.ix	ii.five	three.0	two.eight
About East/North Africa	28 186	2.3	2.2	3.ane	3.4	2.two	2.ane
Latin America and the Caribbean	56551	2.6	2.8	3.9	4.1	2.one	1.8
S Asia	103748	4.5	4.9	four.9	5.0	3.1	2.4
Eastern asia	15081	6.9	6.nine	four.5	four.4	2.9	2.ii
Industrial countries	245766	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.viii	0.5	0.iv
Transition economies	96647	-0.3	-1.vi	-4.6	-3.7	0.2	0.ii
Memo item
World excl. transition economies	465083	1.viii	ane.7	2.1	2.four	1.7	1.5

The 2nd major factor limiting the growth of world meat consumption is the fact that such consumption is heavily and disproportionately concentrated in the industrial countries. They business relationship for fifteen percent of world population but for 37 pct of world meat consumption and twoscore percent of that of milk. Their average per capita consumption is fairly high - that of meat is 88 kg compared with 25 kg in developing countries. This leaves rather limited scope for further increases in their per capita consumption, while their population grows very slowly at 0.6 pct p.a. currently and 0.4 percent p.a. in the coming two decades. These characteristics of the industrial countries have meant that a good function of world demand has been growing merely slowly. The aggregate meat consumption of the industrial countries grew at 1.3 percent p.a. in the final ten years (0.three per centum p.a. for milk), compared with 6.1 percent (3.8 per centum for milk) in developing countries. This slow growth in the industrial countries has partly offset the accelerating growth in several developing countries that have been quickly emerging equally major meat consumers, such as China, Brazil and the Republic of korea. The internet effect of these contrasting trends has been a deceleration in the growth of earth boilerplate per capita consumption of meat, going from 24 kg in the mid-1960s to 36 kg at nowadays (Tabular array 3.ten). This deceleration is conspicuously seen in the growth rates of globe amass consumption of meat (Tabular array 3.11). The deceleration has been even more than pronounced in the instance of milk (Table iii.9), more often than not because of developments in the transition economies (see below).

World averages muffle as much as they reveal. In the case of meat the strong growth in production and implied apparent consumption of squealer meat in China in the 1980s and 1990s (which many observers believe to be grossly overstated in the country's statistics),²¹ has shifted earth meat consumption averages upwards rather significantly, from 30.7 kg in the mid-1980s to 36.4 kg now. Without Mainland china, the boilerplate for the rest of the world would have really stagnated in the same menstruum (meet memo item in Table 3.10). Once again, this stagnation reflects the other boggling outcome of the 1990s, the collapse of consumption in the transition economies which went from 73 kg in the pre-reform period (late 1980s, when it had been boosted past heavy subsidies) to an estimated 46 kg in 1997/99. Excluding likewise the transition economies and the down bias they impart to world totals, the per capita meat consumption in the rest of the world has been growing at a much slower, but e'er decelerating, stride: by two.5 kg in the offset decade (mid-1960s to mid-1970s), and by one.vi kg in the 2nd and third decades (encounter memo particular in Table 3.ten). Meat sector trends in the developing countries every bit a whole have been decisively influenced not just by People's republic of china's rapid growth in the terminal two decades, only as well by a similar performance in Brazil (from 32 kg in the mid-1970s to 71 kg at present). Including these two countries, the per capita meat consumption in the developing countries went over the same period from 11.4 to 25.five kg. Excluding them, it went from 11 kg to just 15.five kg (Tabular array 3.10).

Tabular array 3.x: Nutrient consumption of meat
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1994/96	1997/99	2015	2030
	kg per capita, carcass weight equivalent
Globe	24.2	27.4	30.7	34.six	36.4	41.3	45.iii
Developing countries	x.2	11.4	15.5	22.7	25.five	31.6	36.seven
excl. China	11.0	12.1	14.5	17.five	18.2	22.7	28.0
excl. Prc and Brazil	10.i	xi.0	13.1	xiv.9	fifteen.5	19.8	25.i
Sub-Saharan Africa	9.9	nine.6	10.ii	9.3	9.iv	ten.ix	13.4
Well-nigh E/North Africa	11.9	thirteen.8	20.4	19.7	21.ii	28.6	35.0
Latin America and the Caribbean	31.7	35.6	39.7	fifty.1	53.8	65.3	76.half-dozen
excl. Brazil	34.1	37.v	39.half dozen	42.4	45.4	56.four	67.7
South asia	iii.ix	iii.9	4.4	5.4	5.3	7.half-dozen	11.7
Eastward Asia	8.7	10.0	16.9	31.7	37.vii	50.0	58.v
excl. Red china	9.4	ten.9	14.vii	21.9	22.7	31.0	xl.9
Industrial countries	61.five	73.five	80.7	86.2	88.2	95.7	100.1
Transition countries	42.5	60.0	65.8	50.5	46.2	53.viii	60.7
Memo item
Globe excl. China	28.5	32.half-dozen	34.3	34.1	34.2	36.9	40.3
Earth excl. Communist china and transition countries	26.5	29.0	30.6	32.four	33.0	35.6	39.1
	Meat consumption by type (kg per capita, carcass weight equivalent)
World
Bovine meat	10.0	11	10.5	ix.8	9.8	10.i	10.half-dozen
Ovine and caprine meat	i.8	1.6	one.7	1.8	one.viii	2.1	2.4
Pig meat	9.1	10.2	12.1	13.7	fourteen.vi	15.3	15.i
excl. Communist china	ix.7	10.8	xi.3	10.iv	10.3	nine.ix	nine.vii
Poultry meat	3.2	4.6	six.iv	9.3	10.two	13.viii	17.2
Developing countries
Bovine meat	iv.two	4.three	iv.8	5.7	6.one	seven.1	8.i
Ovine and caprine meat	1.2	1.i	ane.3	1.half-dozen	ane.7	2.0	2.4
Pig meat	3.6	four.1	vi.iv	ix.6	10.8	12	12.2
excl. China	two.1	2.4	2.viii	iii.iii	3.4	4.0	4.7
Poultry meat	1.2	i.8	two.9	5.8	6.9	10.5	14.0
excl. China and Brazil	1.2	1.9	3.ii	4.viii	v.2	8.1	xi.half-dozen

For milk and dairy products, there has been no«China effect» on world totals (given the small weight of these products in Communist china's food consumption), but a very stiff negative one on account of the transition economies, leading to a sharp slowdown in the growth rate of world production and consumption. Without them, there has been no deceleration in world production and consumption (Table 3.9, memo items).

In decision, the small and decelerating growth in globe per capita consumption of meat has been taking identify for a wide diverseness of reasons. For the high-income countries, the reasons include the near saturation of consumption (e.g. in the EU and Australia), policies of high domestic meat prices and/or preference for fish (Japan and Norway), and wellness and food prophylactic reasons everywhere. Even so, by far the most important reasons have been the above-mentioned failure of many depression-income countries to raise incomes and create effective demand, also as the cultural and religious factors affecting the growth of meat consumption in some major countries.

Rapid growth of the poultry sector. Perhaps the perception of revolutionary change in the meat sector reflects the extraordinary performance of world production and consumption of poultry meat. Its share in globe meat production increased from 13 percent in the mid-1960s to 28 percent currently. Per capita consumption increased more than than threefold over the same menstruation. That of pork also increased from 9.1 kg to xiv.half dozen kg (Mainland china'due south statistics helping, but from ix.7 kg to only 10.3 kg for the globe without People's republic of china, Table 3.10). In contrast, per capita consumption of ruminant meat (from cattle, sheep and goats) actually declined a little. The virtually radical shifts in consumption in favour of poultry meat took place in countries that were the traditional producers, and oft major exporters, of bovine meat: Latin America, Northward America and Oceania (accompanied in the latter 2 by deep cuts in the consumption of beef), as well equally in the mutton-eating region of the Near Due east/Due north Africa. Meaning increases in beefiness consumption were rare. They occurred in the South korea, Nihon, Malaysia, Kuwait, Saudi arabia, Mexico and Taiwan Province of Red china (all of them somehow linked to increased beef imports, often the consequence of more than liberal trade policies), while Brazil is an example of fast growth in both production and consumption of beefiness.

Table 3.11: Meat, aggregate production and demand: past and projected
		Production						Consumption
	1997/99	1969 -1999	1979 -1999	1989 -1999	1997/99 -2015	2015 -2030	1997/99	1969 -1999	1979 -1999	1989 -1999	1997/99 -2015	2015 -2030
	'000 tonnes	Growth rates, % p.a.					'000 tonnes	Growth rates, % p.a.
Earth
Bovine	58682	1.4	one.ii	0.8	1.iv	1.ii	57888	ane.iv	1.2	0.7	1.4	1.2
Ovine	10825	1.9	2.ii	one.4	two.ane	one.8	10706	one.9	2.two	1.four	2.1	1.8
Squealer meat	86541	3.2	two.9	2.7	ane.4	0.8	86392	3.2	2.9	2.7	1.4	0.8
Poultry meat	61849	5.two	five.1	5.4	two.nine	2.4	60809	5.2	five.0	5.ii	2.9	2.4
Total meat	217898	ii.9	ii.8	2.7	ane.9	ane.5	215795	ii.9	2.8	two.7	1.nine	1.v
Developing countries
Bovine	27981	3.0	iii.4	3.8	2.three	two.0	28074	3.iv	three.5	iv.1	2.3	two.0
Ovine	7360	three.four	iii.9	3.7	2.5	ii.1	7625	3.5	three.8	3.seven	ii.7	2.2
Hog meat	49348	half dozen.ane	vi	v.seven	2.0	i.ii	49522	6.one	6.0	5.8	2.1	1.2
excl. China	10892	three.7	3.3	3.4	2.vii	two.4	11393	iii.6	iii.2	3.7	two.7	two.4
Poultry meat	31250	7.nine	eight.iii	9.4	iii.viii	3.1	31920	7.viii	8.0	ix.iv	3.9	3.1
Total meat	115938	5.2	5.5	v.nine	2.7	2.one	117141	5.three	5.six	half-dozen.1	2.7	two.1
excl. Red china	59896	3.viii	iii.8	3.9	iii.0	2.vii	61591	iv.0	three.8	4.1	three.0	ii.7
excl. China and Brazil	47122	3.5	three.four	3.3	three.1	2.9	49845	3.viii	three.four	iii.6	3.2	2.9
Total meat by region
Sub-Saharan Africa	5320	2.3	2.0	2.2	3.3	3.five	5408	2.6	2.1	2.ane	3.four	3.7
Near East/North Africa	6956	4.4	4.4	3.8	3.6	2.9	8164	4.7	3.3	iii.3	iii.6	2.9
Latin Americana and the Caribbean	27954	three.five	iii.four	four.5	2.6	ii.1	27296	3.8	3.7	4.8	2.4	2.0
excl. Brazil	15180	ii.5	2.2	three.one	two.vii	2.3	15551	3.0	ii.6	iv.0	2.six	two.ii
South asia	6974	3.seven	3.9	ii.8	3.half dozen	3.9	6801	3.6	3.eight	two.7	3.8	4.0
East Asia	68734	7.1	7.half-dozen	7.6	2.4	ane.six	69472	7.1	seven.7	7.viii	ii.5	1.6
excl. Cathay	12692	5.1	5.i	four.1	three.0	ii.8	13923	5.1	5.1	iv.6	three.0	2.seven
Memo items
World livestock production (meat, milk, eggs)ane		ii.2	2.1	2.0	1.seven	1.5
Globe cereal feed demand (one thousand thousand tonnes)	657	1.3	0.vi	0.6	1.nine	1.five
Population (one thousand thousand)
Earth							5878	1.7	1.6	1.5	i.2	0.nine
Developing countries							4572	2.0	ane.9	one.7	ane.4	ane.one
excl. Mainland china							3340	2.three	ii.two	two.0	1.7	1.iii
excl. Red china and Brazil							3174	2.3	2.ii	2.ane	1.7	1.3
1 Growth rates from aggregate production derived by valuing all products at 1989/91 international prices.

Buoyancy of meat merchandise in contempo years. The rapid growth in consumption of several countries was supported by even faster growth in trade. Some drastic changes occurred in the sources of exports and destination of imports, peculiarly in the concluding ten years or and so. For case, Nihon increased per capita meat consumption from 32.half dozen kg in 1984/86 to 41.five kg in 1997/99, while its net imports quadrupled and cocky-sufficiency fell from 84 to 56 percent. At the global level, trade (globe exports, including the meat equivalent of alive brute exports) increased from nine.4 percent of earth consumption in the mid-1980s to 12.7 percent in 1997/99, with poultry increasing from 12.ii to 16.iv percent and beefiness from half-dozen.three to 13.9 percent (Table three.12). The major actors in this expansion of the meat merchandise are shown in Tabular array three.13. Japan tops the list of importers. Recent surges in the poultry meat (and to a lesser extent sus scrofa meat) imports of the countries of the former Soviet Union (overwhelmingly the Russian Federation), put this grouping of countries second in the league of importers, with its net imports rivalling those of Japan. On the export side, the combined exports of beefiness and mutton of Commonwealth of australia and New Zealand put them at the top of world meat exporters. However, the actually boggling development of the 1990s has been the turnaround of the United States from a sizeable cyberspace importer of meat to a sizeable net exporter, a result reflecting its declining cyberspace imports of beef and pig meat and skyrocketing exports of poultry meat. In a sense, although the policies are different, the United States is replicating the before experience of the EU, which turned from a big cyberspace importer of meat up to the tardily 1970s to a large and growing net exporter.

Table 3.12: World exports of livestock products and percentage of earth consumption
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1997/99
Total meat
Exports ('000 tonnes)	5996	8869	14011	27440
% of consumption	seven.iv	7.9	nine.iv	12.7
Bovine
Exports ('000 tonnes)	3134	4626	6225	9505
% of consumption	9.4	ten.iii	12.2	sixteen.four
Pig meat
Exports ('000 tonnes)	1734	2522	4665	8270
% of consumption	5.7	6.0	7.9	9.half-dozen
Poultry meat
Exports ('000 tonnes)	436	887	1973	8465
% of consumption	4.0	iv.vii	half dozen.3	13.9
Ovine
Exports ('000 tonnes)	691	835	1148	1200
% of consumption	xi.ane	12.6	fourteen.ane	xi.2
Milk and dairy (liquid milk equivalent)
Exports ('000 tonnes)	21606	31769	57004	71364
% of consumption	6.0	7.6	11.one	12.8
Note: Meat exports include meat equivalent of live animal exports.

Tabular array 3.xiii: Internet merchandise positions of the major importers and exporters of livestock products ('000 tonnes)
	Major meat importers					Major meat exporters
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1997/99		1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1997/99
Japan					United States
Beef	-12	-85	-221	-867	Beef	-563	-887	-854	-475
Mutton	-69	-119	-78	-34	Pig meat	-116	-125	-493	-159
Pig meat	-ane	-118	-214	-862	Poultry meat	101	100	247	2548
Poultry meat	-9	-28	-130	-666	Total meat	-602	-916	-1109	1895
Total meat	-91	-350	-643	-2430	Milk/dairy products1	2547	-2040	-719	-2909
Milk/dairy products1	-847	-1351	-2129	-2137	Eu-15
Former Soviet Marriage					Beef	-879	-220	552	504
Beef	-101	-407	-470	-704	Mutton	-377	-290	-233	-219
Pig meat	-four	-4	-333	-694	Pig meat	-46	-17	476	1243
Poultry meat	-15	-61	-143	-956	Poultry meat	-79	59	253	915
Total meat	-95	-489	-1036	-2366	Total meat	-1381	-468	1048	2444
Milk/dairy products1	-79	70	-502	529	Milk/dairy products1	-396	5846	11821	10408
Mexico					Commonwealth of australia and New Zealand
Beef	106	44	32	-141	Beef	558	989	918	1959
Pig meat	0	one	-i	-112	Mutton	469	524	713	716
Poultry meat	0	-1	-17	-297	Total meat	1033	1523	1637	2681
Full meat	105	41	7	-586	Milk/dairy productsi	4729	5584	7764	13302
Milk/dairy products1	-254	-684	-1951	-2231	Brazil
Republic of Korea
Beef	0	0	-13	-181	Beef	57	83	263	302
Pig meat	1	half-dozen	0	-five	Grunter meat	ane	6	-six	113
Poultry meat	0	0	0	-40	Poultry meat	0	7	266	621
Total meat	0	-1	-17	-231	Total meat	58	97	518	1028
Milk/dairy products1	-68	-xxx	-67	-205	Milk/dairy products1	-230	-224	-1044	-1913
Saudi Arabia					Argentina
Beef	-iii	-10	-70	-52	Beef	583	348	280	376
Mutton	-vi	-six	-47	-89	Full meat	620	380	282	267
Poultry meat	-3	-47	-169	-292	Milk/dairy productsone	59	444	36	1217
Total meat	-12	-62	-286	-433	Eastern Europe
Milk/dairy products1	-62	-213	-1169	-877	Beefiness	217	327	310	78
					Mutton	17	51	74	24
					Hog meat	211	287	398	215
					Poultry meat	59	169	287	38
					Total meat	504	833	1069	355
					Milk/dairy products1	214	828	2388	1683
Notation: Data include the meat equivalent of merchandise in live animals. 1 In liquid milk equivalent (excludes butter).

The developing countries did non participate as much as the developed countries in this buoyancy of the world meat trade, although in that location have been some notable exceptions on both the import and the export side. In poultry meat, Brazil and Thailand became significant exporters, while Mexico became a large importer together with the more traditional importers of the Near East region (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates) and Hong Kong SAR. In sus scrofa meat, the largest developing internet exporter connected to exist China (mainland, including trade in live animals), although this has declined in recent years. China was rivalled in contempo years past growing net exports from Brazil. Taiwan Province of China became a major exporter (by and large to Japan) in the decade to the mid-1990s earlier turning into a internet importer later on 1997²² post-obit the outbreak of foot-and-oral fissure illness (Fuller, Fabiosa and Premakumar, 1997).

On the import side, Hong Kong SAR has continued to be the predominant developing importer, while Mexico and Argentina became fast-growing cyberspace importers of pig meat in contempo years. Overall, the squealer meat trade has not been buoyant in the developing countries, an event that has partly reflected the lack of consumption in the major meat importers of the Near East/North Africa region. In bovine meat, India joined the more than traditional developing exporters of South America as a significant exporter (mostly buffalo meat). The Republic of korea became the largest developing net importer, surpassing Arab republic of egypt. Several other developing countries became pregnant importers of bovine meat in recent years, including some countries of Southeast Asia (the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia) as well every bit Chile. Most recently, Mexico turned from cyberspace exporter to net importer of beef (including the meat equivalent of merchandise in live animals - on this latter point, see USDA, 2001a). Finally, only a few of the traditional importers of the Almost East/N Africa region (Saudi arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) continued to be significant cyberspace importers of mutton (including live animals), just the imports of other countries complanate (the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya) so that net imports of the region equally a whole declined.

Slow growth in the dairy trade. In contrast to the buoyancy of the meat trade in recent years, trade in dairy products about stagnated. At that place was no growth in internet imports of the developing countries. Increases in Eastern asia and modest ones in Latin America but compensated for declines in the other regions. There was no boost from increased imports on the part of the transition economies as was the instance with meat. On the reverse, the former Soviet Union turned from net importer to internet exporter. The turn down of production of subsidized surpluses and the associated decline in food aid shipments on the side of the major exporters were an integral part of these trade outcomes.

Growth of livestock output achieved with modest increases in the feed use of cereals. We referred earlier to the importance of the livestock sector in creating demand for grains and oilseeds. Feed demand for cereals is often considered equally the dynamic element that conditions the growth of the cereal sector. Occasionally, such utilise of cereals is viewed equally a threat to food security, allegedly because it«subtracts» cereal supplies (or the resources going into their production) that would otherwise be available to nutrient-insecure countries and population groups. We accept argued elsewhere that this way of viewing things is not entirely appropriate, although, where economies are closed to trade, negative effects on food supplies available to nutrient-insecure population groups can be produced (Alexandratos, 1995).

Estimates put the total feed use of cereals at 657 one thousand thousand tonnes, or 35 percent of globe total cereal use. Demand for feed in recent years has been a much less dynamic component of aggregate demand for cereals than unremarkably believed. The chief reasons for these developments in the 1990s were discussed in the preceding section on cereals: the collapse of the livestock sector in the transition economies and loftier policy prices for cereals in the European union that favoured utilise of not-cereal feedstuffs (encounter also the discussion on cassava in Department three.5 below). An boosted cistron that slowed down the growth of cereal employ every bit feed has been the shift of meat production away from beef and towards poultry meat and pork, particularly in the industrial countries, the major users of cereals for feed. Pigs and poultry are much more efficient converters of feed to meat than cattle (come across Smil, 2000, Affiliate five). Earth totals have been decisively influenced past developments in the United States where the shift was nearly pronounced (poultry at present accounts for 44 percent of total meat output, upward from xxx percent in the mid-1980s, with the share of beef declining from 43 to 33 percentage). Given the predominance of the feedlot system in the United States for producing bovine meat with loftier feedgrain conversion rates (5-7 kg of grain per kg of beef are the numbers normally given in the literature), information technology is easy to see why the shift to poultry has had such a pronounced impact on the average meat/grain ratios. Finally, productivity increases (reduction of the amount of feed required to produce 1 kg of meat), resulting from animal genetic improvements and better management, also played a office, at least in the major industrial countries.

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²⁰ A recent study puts the trouble as follows:«In 1964, half of all beef cows in the United States were on lots of fewer than 50 animals. Past 1996, nearly xc percent of direct cattle feeding was occurring on lots of ane 000 caput or more, with some 300 lots averaging xvi 000-twenty 000 head and nearly 100 lots in backlog of xxx thou caput. These feedlots represent waste direction challenges equal to small cities, and well-nigh are regulated equally point-source pollution sites under the potency of the United states of america Ecology Protection Bureau (EPA)» (Committee for Ecology Cooperation-NAFTA, 1999, p. 202).
²¹ According to its production and merchandise statistics, China'south per capita meat consumption, resulting from the food balance sheets, was 45 kg in 1997/99. Contained consumption statistics testify per capita consumption of«pork, beef, mutton» for 1997 of xix.04 kg for urban residents and 12.72 kg for the rural ones (UNDP, 2000a). The nutrient residuum canvas data nosotros apply here show for 1997/99 36.5 kg for the aforementioned meats plus some other 8.v kg for poultry meat. For a word of discrepancies see Feng Lu (1998); Fuller, Hayes and Smith (2000); and Colby, Zhong and Giordano (1998). It is indicative of the reservations with which the official product (and implied consumption) statistics are received by those concerned with world trade in livestock products, feedgrains and soybeans, that in FAPRI'southward latest projection study the data for per capita consumption of meat in Prc have been revised downwards drastically, to 31.5 kg in 1997/99 (FAPRI, 2002, livestock tables).
²² In the latest FAPRI projections, the cyberspace, and growing, net importer status of Taiwan Province of China continues to 2011 (FAPRI, 2002).

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